Why Willpower is a Scam (And What Actually Works According to Science)

1. Willpower sucks!

I am fascinated by change—specifically why I struggle so much to kick my own bad habits.

We are often told that if we just push harder and apply enough "motivation," we can override decades of hardwired behavior. But following a fascinating lecture at Cambridge this week, I’ve realized that relying on willpower is like taking a long position on a depreciating asset - it is a losing investment from the start.

Think of it this way: You are trying to install a Call of Duty on a PC with a graphic card from 1998. No matter how much you want to play, the system will crash.

If willpower is broken, what actually works? Here is what the research says.

2. Out the 21 days, in the 66 Days

There is a widespread myth sold by influencers and self-help gurus that it takes 21 days to form a new habit. However, science has shown that is statistically incorrect.

The data shows the average time for a new behavior to reach automaticity - where the new routine happens without conscious thought - is actually 66 days. For complex behavioral changes, that latency can extend up to 254 days.

The progress curve is asymptotic. You get fast early gains, but the "tail" is long. If you abort the process at Day 21 because you "don't feel different," you are effectively canceling the installation at 30%. Good luck playing a game at that stage!

3. The Vulnerability Audit (HALT)

I have recently discovered how powerful the HALT framework used by Alcoholics Anonymous is. Now, everytime I fail at changing something, I refer to this.

In addiction recovery (or when we are trying to install a new videogame, habit), we often fail not because we are weak, but because we are compromised by four physiological spikes.

This is the HALT method. Before you give up, ask if you are:

• Hungry (Low glucose = low executive function)

• Angry (High cortisol = overrides logic)

• Lonely (Isolation = brain seeks dopamine comfort)

• Tired (Fatigue = prefrontal cortex shutdown)

If you slip up, don't blame your character. Blame your biology, fix the feeling, and restart.

4. The Migration Pain (The Grief Curve)

Probably the most popular of change model is the 6 stages of grief. Each stage represents the human reaction to change and, if you manage to go through each of them without skipping any, you should then be able to change.

The initial change that happen to you will shock you, which will bring about a denial (this is not happening!), Anger (why is this happening to me!) eventually hitting the Valley of Despair (Depression - oh no, this has happened to me...).

Even though painful, this is an important human feature: by hitting rock bottom, human nature realises that the only way forward is up, maybe through some bargaining (how this has happened to me?) - and eventually we reach acceptance (this has happened to me).

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5. Return on Investment on Energy Invested (i.e. Effort vs. Automaticity)

Have you ever wondered why do 46% of New Year's resolutions fail by month six? It comes down to Cognitive Debt.

In the beginning, the RoI on a new habit is negative: you are spending a lot of cognitive energy (mental effort) for zero immediate return (the change).

However, neuroplasticity - i.e. the ability of our brain to adapt - is the ultimate compound interest. Eventually, the "Effort" curve drops below the "Automaticity" curve. The behavior moves from active processing to background processing.

Once the habit is cheaper to do than it is to skip, you have won.

Now you know

Change is not about "wanting it enough." It is about surviving the 66 days, managing your HALT triggers, and enduring the Valley of Despair until the compound interest kicks in.

So - what videogame have you decided you’re going to install next?

The change horoscope!

♈️ Aries: Your HALT trigger is Anger; don't rage-quit the installation process just because it started buffering at Day 15.

♉️ Taurus: You aren't stubborn, you are just stuck in the Denial phase of the Grief Curve; check your glucose levels before refusing to change.

♊️ Gemini: You have too many tabs open 📑; you cannot pay down Cognitive Debt if you are trying to install three different games at once.

♋️ Cancer: You are feeling Lonely (HALT), not weak—don't let the Valley of Despair trick you into texting your old bad habits for comfort.

♌️ Leo: Stop looking for a trophy 🏆 at Day 21; the real high score doesn't unlock until you survive the 66-Day grind.

♍️ Virgo: Your perfectionism is crashing the system ⚠️; remember that a messy installation is better than aborting the process at 30%.

♎️ Libra: Stop Bargaining with your biology ⚖️; the ROI on willpower is negative, so stop debating and start automating.

♏️ Scorpio: Embrace the Valley of Despair 💀; you are the only sign designed to survive hitting rock bottom and rebooting stronger.

♐️ Sagittarius: You are likely to get bored at Day 40 🥱; remember the progress curve is asymptotic, so don't switch games just for the thrill.

♑️ Capricorn: You love the work, but check if you are Tired (HALT) 🔋—even a high-end graphics card needs a cooling fan to prevent a shutdown.

♒️ Aquarius: Stop trying to "hack" the 66 days 🤖; you can't outsmart neuroplasticity, you just have to wait for the compound interest.

♓️ Pisces: You are dissociating to avoid the Migration Pain 😶‍🌫️; stay present and let the new background processing take over.